Senior U.S. officials believe Trump may return to military action against Iran after midterm elections

According to three sources familiar with the talks, Qatar's mediation efforts between the U.S. and Iran yielded minimal progress this week and neither side is willing to give ground, and senior U.S. officials believe President Trump may order a return to broad military action following midterm elections in early November.

Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi met on Monday in New York with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his team for several hours, and according to a source familiar with the matter they discussed a two-page Qatari compromise proposal. According to two additional sources, the plan was intended to address both Iran's demand for removal of the American naval blockade and the U.S. demand for Iranian concessions on the nuclear issue. On Monday evening, al-Thawadi held talks in Washington with Trump's envoy, Jared Kushner, and with additional senior U.S. officials, and Vice President Vance attended a brief part of the meeting.

On Monday morning, senior U.S. officials briefed several media outlets that the talks were "positive and constructive," and said Trump is willing to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete steps to reduce its nuclear program. A few hours later, while senior Qatari officials were still at the White House, Trump posted on Truth Social that he made no offer to Iran. "Everything is stuck. The Iranians are demanding things the U.S. cannot accept, and the U.S. believes it is winning so there's no need for compromise," said one of the sources.

According to two of the sources, the Qatari mediators will continue to try to advance a diplomatic solution, but they are becoming increasingly frustrated by both sides. Additional regional mediators, including Pakistan and Egypt, called on Iran to agree to concessions on the nuclear issue, but according to another source the Iranians said they would consider this only after the U.S. agrees to return to the June memorandum of understanding. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, claimed on Wednesday that Iran had transferred its conditions to the U.S., and added: "Trump is stuck in mud. He cannot negotiate and also cannot fight."

President Trump told journalists on Wednesday: "They are in very bad shape. I don't know if they are ready yet to give ground. They will give ground. The goal is to stop the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Iran will not have nuclear weapons."